Misconceptions about the American intelligence community
In recent days (and months... and years...) there has been a lot of speculation and judgment regarding accountability for 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq, and other events which were either fueled by or were a result of "faulty" intelligence. "9/11 happened because the President ignored valuable intelligence!" "Colin Powell and George Bush lied to the American people about WMD in Iraq!" "Why haven't we gotten Osama?"
The constant speculation as to "What did you know and when did you know it?" and "Why didn't you respond to this clear threat?" are recriminations that are, in hindsight, very helpful to prevent further intelligence "failures". However, there are many things that you should know about the intelligence community (IC) as a whole -- its nature, its abilities, and its constraints. Maybe this can shed some light on why intelligence appears to be failing us.
First of all, the IC wants you to think that it is a well-oiled machine, running around the globe monitoring all threats to the United States at all times. This is a popular and enduring myth. The second myth is that the CIA and its other intelligence agencies has the ability to stop, prevent, or put down perceived threats. That myth is propagated by the "security blanket" mentality of American life -- Americans like to think they're being protected from harm by their government.
These myths are sustained because of the IC's inherent secrecy. The IC must operate in a vacuum of secrecy -- and what better thing to propagate in such an environment than paranoid speculation. The tinfoil hat people think the CIA is reading their minds... the violent overthrow of such-and-such nation must have been engineered by the CIA... the NSA is tapping every phone call and logging every website... the coup in El Banana Republico was a CIA operation... and what about Roswell?
The IC passively encourages this misinformation campaign -- partly out of instilling fear in the baddies but mostly because such disinformation obscures the real abilities of the CIA, NSA, and other IC organizations -- allowing them to do their real job within their finite limitations. The CIA wants bad guys to fear them, suspect them, and think twice before harming any Americans. The American IC wants you to think it's a kind of omniscient octopus -- and it also adds to the mystique of America's ability to protect its citizens.
But is the NSA really listening to every phone call? Can the CIA really read your mind? (Would it want to? What would it find? Hmmm...?)
The only disadvantage to this perception is that everybody subscribes to this omniscient octopus image, including the IC employees. So when things go wrong the IC is the first to get the blame. "When Pakistan got its nukes, where was the CIA?" "How come 9/11 happened?" "Where was the CIA when that fanatic killed all those people?" Unfortunately, these have been the post-9/11 recriminations -- deserved? Partly. Indeed the US Intel Community dropped the ball. But did they have the ball in the first place?
It is important to remember that the IC is a bureaucracy. America does not own an omniscient octopus. The CIA is not some shadow organization with ancient secrets and alien technology. The IC has very real limitations and extremely finite assets. Why waste those assets chasing down every real or imagined potential threat? It would be a massive waste of resources and only increase our global footprint -- and with that, resentment of American interference abroad.
This also plays into the second myth -- the IC cannot go spread itself thin looking for, and hopefully stumbling upon, all new and possible dangers. Instead, they've had to focus on those which are clear and present. If your Soviet neighbor is burning down your house, it's not expedient to worry about the Arab down the street. Then later, when the Arab is breaking down your door, it's not prudent to suddenly worry about the People's Republic of China. In the same way, intelligence on one imminent threat can't be superceded on one that is vague, unactionable, and probably false. Even if it later proves to be true, an inaction in one arena meant five other possible, more credible dangers were subverted.
To protect all Americans at home and abroad from all threats both real and potential would be a massive undertaking. It would require far more resources than we have -- unless you want to raise taxes, shut down borders, put up massive security blockades at every port, airline terminal, and border crossing. And who could have justified that kind of response on 9/10? Considering the pre-9/11 political and social climate it would have been impossible to enact the kinds of civil liberty restrictions, tax increases, and added bureaucracy that would have actually staved off an attack on that Tuesday morning. Internationally, there would have had to be a massive ramp-up of foreign security personnel who not only spoke Arabic fluently but were able to go into the hornet's nests and discover exactly what Saddam and the Taliban were up to. Hardly likely -- I would say next to impossible.
So what does this have to do with the Tea in China? Or the WMDs in Iraq? Well, the key here is to not believe the myth of America's invulnerability. The Intelligence Community is made up of hard working individuals -- thousands of them who toil day and night (literally) to bring the world's threats into sharp focus.
If blame must be thrown towards the CIA, NSA, etc., for their mishandling of pre-9/11 intelligence, or the false positive they received on Saddam's WMD programs, or their inability to find Osama bin laden in the caves of Tora Bora... then so be it. But they are not infallible, nor are they all-knowing. Hardly the Omniscient Octopus we think they are.